Oct 08

They will come out firing, these Red Sox will, and hope that their stacked line of power pitchers will lead to another lengthy postseason run.

It starts with the co-aces at the top of the rotation in Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, who both sit in the mid-90s with their heat and have secondary pitches that make the fastballs look faster. Clay Buchholz, the blossoming No. 3 starter, also relies on his heater, though he mixes in a plus curveball and changeup.

And when it comes time for manager Terry Francona to go to the bullpen, the Red Sox have a heat-heat-heat finish trio of Billy Wagner, Daniel Bard and, yes, closer Jonathan Papelbon, who has never allowed a run in 16 career postseason outings.

On those chilly October nights of recent years, high-octane gas has often led to championship glory. The Red Sox hope that will be the case for them, beginning with their best-of-five American League Division Series against the Angels.

“I think it’s proven that [power arms] are a successful type of pitcher that has done well in the postseason,” said Red Sox pitching coach John Farrell. “If you look back at recent teams that have won or gone deep in the postseason, there’s been a reliance on power-type arms. That’s not to say that you can’t win with a mixture of styles.

“On the flip side of that, Hideki [Okajima] has been extremely successful and been outstanding in the two postseasons prior to this season. I think what it ultimately comes down to is you have to consistently get hitters out with stuff inside the strike zone.”

But stuff inside the strike zone is more difficult to hit when it is traveling faster.

Veteran third baseman Mike Lowell has two World Series rings (2003 Marlins and ‘07 Red Sox) that were won largely on the strength of power pitching.

“Not to take anything away from those finesse pitchers, but if that day, you don’t have your great stuff, your power arms seem to be able to get away with a little more,” said Lowell. “No matter what, it’s hard to hit 95 [mph] unless you’re throwing it down the middle. But I think there’s a little more leeway for a guy with a power arm to battle through a couple of innings where he doesn’t have sharp stuff and make an adjustment, than a guy who doesn’t have velocity, who might get touched up pretty early.”

Boston’s power-packed staff is especially vital against an Angels team that must be limited as much as possible, or else they will turn baseball games into track meets.

The Angels finished third in the AL with 148 stolen bases.

“If you don’t let anyone on, you don’t really have that issue,” said Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek. “I think if we pitch the ball well, we’ll be OK. I think that that’s the most important thing — is that we throw the ball well. We’ve played them — we understand that they take the extra base. We understand that they have guys who will put pressure on the outfielders and trying to take the extra bases and run. It’s something that we should be prepared for.”

The Angels have used the same running style in years past, only to be eliminated by the Red Sox in the 2004, ‘07 and ‘08 ALDS. The reason, in all three cases, is that the Red Sox’s staff was dominant.

They have the horses to do so again. Lester, who didn’t allow the Angels an earned run in two starts in last year’s ALDS, takes the ball in Game 1. Beckett, with the exception of last year when he was hindered by an oblique injury, has dominated postseasons past. This is Buchholz’s first crack at October, but he will try to calm his nerves with his electric stuff.

“What sets the tone is starting pitching, and we have a pretty good threesome we can throw out there,” said Varitek. “We have two horses at the front. That bodes well.”

But in the postseason, it always seems to come down just as much to bullpens, and the Red Sox have a good one. Papelbon has been an All-Star all four seasons he’s been in the Majors and his fastball looks faster than the radar gun readings because of the explosion at the end. Bard throws 100 at times, and sits between 97 and 99. Wagner, even after Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery, still hums it in there in the mid-90s.

Are a collection of power arms a big advantage in October?

“It only helps if you throw third strikes and get people out,” Wagner said. “But we’ve got a lot of talent. It’s a luxury to have.”

Has Wagner ever been part of such a loaded staff?

“Not quite as deep as these guys. This is about as good as it gets, I believe,” said the 38-year-old lefty.

With 1,230 strikeouts, the Red Sox finished second in the AL this season. Against the Angels, the ability to miss bats comes in handy for the simple fact that when they make contact, they immediately put pressure on the defense.

What can the Red Sox do when the Angels do reach base?

“From a pitcher’s standpoint, we’ve got to learn to control that tempo and be unpredictable from an unloading or a holding of the ball standpoint, to not fall into any type of predictable patterns in terms of the time elapsed to the time a pitcher comes set to when he first makes his move to deliver the ball to home plate,” Farrell said. “We’re well aware of their style of play. I wouldn’t solely put their style of play just on the running game. They’re a much deeper, much more powerful lineup than maybe ones we’ve faced before. We have the utmost respect for their capabilities and we’ll be prepared to deal with that.”

Deal is exactly what Boston’s pitchers plan on doing.

“We have some guys that can dial it up a little bit, and I think because of that, your margin for error is a little bit greater than the finesse guys,” said Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay. “During the playoffs, your margin for error is less. You don’t have that luxury of having that one bad start or two. Luckily for us, we have some good power guys.”

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Oct 08

Northampton Saints are set to kick off their Heineken Cup season against two-times winners Munster at Franklin’s Gardens on Saturday, with coach Jim Mallinder excited by the prospect of testing his maturing side against one of Europe’s biggest names.

Having lifted the Heineken Cup in 2000 and the European Challenge Cup last season the Saints have a strong European pedigree and will need every ounce of effort if they are to progress from a group also containing French champions Perpignan.

“We were pleased with the way things ended up last year – we were good at home and that helped,” said Mallinder. “To finish eighth in the league in our first season back was satisfactory and to win the European Challenge Cup was very encouraging.

“That finished off a good season for us but now we’ve got to move on and we’ve got to improve. It’s going to be tough and it’s going to be competitive but we’re looking forward to the challenge.

“You’d never pick to play Perpignan, Munster and Benetton Treviso but we’ve got that and, actually, it’s a brilliant draw for us because it will see how far we’ve come. Northampton is a big club and needs to be playing and competing on that big stage.”

Mallinder believes that the Saints’ success abroad last season gives them a vital reference point as they seek to find upset victories at two of the most volatile grounds in the game, Munster’s Thomond Park and Perpignan’s Stade Aime Giral.

“I think the confidence in the squad has always been there but what the Challenge Cup has done is show us that we can compete with some of the big teams,” he said. “We proved that we can play away from home in the Challenge Cup, winning all our games in France.

“It’s also showed us that we really want to go on and challenge and prove ourselves against the very top teams. Winning the Challenge Cup has given us the opportunity to do that, especially with the draw that we’ve got in this year’s Heineken Cup.

“However, people won’t underestimate us this year and they’ll know that they’ve got a difficult game. But for us, it’s just about making sure we do the right things at the right time; that we continue to work hard; we continue to stay tight as a group; and we go into every game giving it our best effort. As long as we do that, I think we’ll be competitive.”

Meanwhile, the Saints will have to wait to introduce former Australia lock Dan Vickerman to European action. Vickerman is still a full-time student at Cambridge University and will not be available for his new club until the end of the Varsity season in December.

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Oct 08

Great, TV changes for Villa games! Ok, Manchester United at Old Trafford will now kick off at 5:30pm on Saturday December 12 and will be screened on ESPN. Arsenal at the Emirates is now set for December 27 (it was to be played Boxing Day originally) with a daft 1:30pm kick off which will be shown on Sky. That leaves Villa v Liverpool which will now be played on Tuesday 29 December (7:45pm) instead of the 28th and will also be on Sky.

Farnborough’s 15-year-old youth team striker Jordan Carter is being linked to Villa with a trial at Bodymoor under way according to the Birmingham Mail.

Stiliyan Petrov has told the Independent that Villa can reach the top four: “We’ve shown in the last three seasons that we can compete. We’ve had good results in that time against the top teams like Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United. We also know what pressure means. We have had it the last two seasons and we need to cope with it again and be more consistent and we hope we can go the same way. The experiences of the past couple of years will also stand the younger players in good stead for the battles ahead.” Full article.

Randy may not be in the top 10 owners rich list but MON has made the top ten richest managers according to 442 MON Makes Top Ten Richest Managers List.

Richard Dunne was over the moon, despite his muted celebration, at bagging his first goal for the Villa against former club Manchester City. Speaking on the official site our almost match winner was overjoyed with our performance and believes that our draw with City shows that we can compete at the top of the league. Delighted I Dunne It.

Gabby Agbonlahor has said he is aware of the importance of putting in a good performance should he get on the pitch in England’s upcoming double headers. Speaking to the Daily Mail Gabby admitted that recently he has found his form again after his second half of the season blip and although he’s on a decent scoring run for us, he knows he has to make an impact in the following two games if he is hoping to clinch a place in Fabio Capello’s eventual squad. Gabby To Grab International Chance.

James Milner has applauded his team mates for the way we took the game to Manchester City on Monday night. Explaining his pleasure on the official site, he was obviously disappointed that we couldn’t add another goal to proceedings and only walked away with a point, but overall our resilience in defence shone through and that should be our abiding memory. Milly Positive In Attack.

C&B all the way from Sweden on the Gareth Barry situation … which gladly is now almost all but done and dusted!. Sweden Villan On Gareth Barry Boo Boys.

James Milner is happy that our defenders are now solid: He told AVTV: “I’m delighted for the lads at the back. It is never easy moving club and settling in. It takes you a while but they all seem to have slotted straight in and that’s all credit to them. They are working as a unit straight away and you can see from our defensive record the last few games it has been very solid.”

Colin Davies returns with an ode to the Blues.

Man City Coverage:

Sheriff Kimbo had seen plenty of positive comments about the game: If only we’d played well…

Video highlights.

Martin O’Neill has singled out Richard Dunne for praise after an immense performance against Manchester City.

Stats

Oct 08

Monday night’s game at home to Manchester City had been billed as a game where either side are quite capable of breaking into the top four. Manchester City with the help of the ruler of Abu Dhabi and Aston Villa with Cleveland Brown’s owner Randy Lerner.  For too long the Premiership has been dominated by the ‘Big Four’ and over the last couple of seasons the likes of Tottenham Hotspur, ourselves and Manchester City have tried and failed to break that top four, with the exception of course, of Everton back in 2004/05.
Villa have started off the season pretty well, only losing twice, admittedly to teams we should really be beating in Wigan Athletic and Blackburn Rovers respectively.  Both games were has bad as each other and with the Blackburn away day usually one of only a handful of away days I genuinely look forward to, it turned into a massive disappointment, unlike the 3,500+ Villa fans who made the long journey north, the team however failed to turn up. So it was with a little bit of pessimism that I approached last night’s game.

The return of Gareth Barry to Villa Park was always going to be the main headline and thankfully didn’t distract too many of us from spoiling what was a great game and a wonderful advert for Premier League Football (EPL if you must!!!!).

But before I carry on, I’d like to discuss the difference in how two former legends of both clubs were treated by their former fans.  Richard Dunne, having so far made only a handful of appearances for Villa, appears to have settled in brilliantly, and thought the respect shown to him by the Manchester faithful was fitting for a player who had given them nearly 10 years service before his move south to Birmingham, now compare and contrast the reception that Gareth Barry received from the Holte Army. Here lies my problem. Gareth had been vilified for joining a team who are no doubt better equipped (financially) in breaking into the top four, yes he’s earning over double what he was earning at Villa Park, but does that make him public enemy number 1?.  Surely, if you had chance of promotion within your line of work and were offered more money with it , you would take it, wouldn’t you?.

Richard Dunne celebrates with his new Villa team-mates after heading them into a 1-0 leadRichard Dunne celebrates with his new Villa team-mates after heading them into a 1-0 lead

I made my mind up ages ago that I would neither boo nor cheer/applaud him throughout the game, footballers come and go and has so many pundits now say there is little or no loyalty left in football, it’s all about chasing the next big payday.

What I enjoyed about Monday night was that the effort was there and most of the players seemed up for it.  Now fair enough, I’m quite east to please, all I want to see is a team full of players who are interested in playing for the Villa, win, lose or draw and apart from the petty booing I thought the atmosphere was the best of the season so far as well. We could and probably should have scored early on and it would have been a shocker as it would have come from open play not a set piece.  Gabby (Agbonlahor) was so unlucky and Shay Given, as he so often is, was there to make a great save.  I thought the first half was largely ours and the goal by Richard Dunne was very much deserved.  Has the Villa masses went wild, Dunne made a nice touch I thought by not over-celebrating his first goal in Villa colour’s in a show of respect to the fans who had idolised him for all those years, they reciprocated by applauding him back.  I doubt we would have done the same had Barry scored last night.  Barry I thought looked shaky from the start, it wasn’t a commanding performance that we so got used to during his time at VP, but not a bad one all the same.

I’m not going to get picky and point out the frailties of our performance after all Villa came out and at least the majority of the team put in the effort.  You could look at why we think we’ve won after one goal and why our strikers don’t shoot but then you could also look on the other side of things and see just how our defence has improved since the loss of Martin Laursen in the summer.  If only we had bought in a in and out goalscorer like Darren Bent, which I must admit I had been harping on about during the transfer window, instead we have to put up with the likes of Emile Heskey who made a brief appearance off the bench and within 5 minutes looked knackered and not at all interested, still some will say the same about John Carew, but when he wants too he can still bang the goals in.

We all know that Gabby still isn’t perfect but playing him up front has seen a vast improvemnt on his performances this season, rather than relying on his pace and sticking him out on the wing last season.  He is finally looking like a threat up front and giving defenders plenty to worry about, I hope Ashley Young take’s note of Gabby’s new found attitude to football, perhaps being dropped from the England squad will give him a much needed wake-up call.

Then the turning point, Stepehen Ireland was brought on to replace Nigel De Jong who I thought had potential but was given the run around in midfield and was never really a threat from the start.  Ireland is a quality player and so it proved has he started the move that lead to the equaliser, finished by that horrible little bloke but quality player mind, Craig Bellamy, who to be honest had a very quiet game I thought up until the equaliser.  And that was about it apart from the 5 added minutes at the end of the game, which I’m still trying to work out where they came from. I would have taken the draw at the start of the match so I left VP relatively happy.  My Man of the Match, well I’ll have to give it to two really were James Collins and Richard Dunne.  Collins was solid as anything and Dunne who was also immense at the back and oh so unlucky not to grab a brace.

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Oct 07

The Powerhouse Postseason is here

Yankees. Dodgers. Cardinals. Angels. Red Sox. Phillies. Rockies. Twins.

It is a field stacked with playoff experience, stacked with strong frontline starting pitchers, stacked with explosive offense, stacked with managers who have been here before — and stacked with a combined winning percentage that usually translates into long series.

The Division Series begins with Rockies at Phillies at 2:37 p.m. ET on Wednesday, followed at 6:07 p.m. ET by Twins at Yankees, followed at 9:37 p.m. ET by Cardinals at Dodgers. The Red Sox-Angels opener will be at 9:37 p.m. ET Thursday.

Four advance to the League Championship Series, which begins Oct. 15 in the National League and Oct. 16 in American League, and then the 105th World Series gets under way on Oct. 28. If there is a World Series Game 7 it would be on Nov. 5, the latest end to any Major League Baseball season, and it just might go that far.

The combined records of the eight postseason clubs in this regular season was 753-544, culminating with the tiebreaker victory on Tuesday night. That is a winning percentage of .581, the highest for any postseason field since .593 in 2004. The winning percentage was .574 in 2008, .566 in 2007, .569 in 2006 and .575 in 2005.

If you look those last four seasons before this one, then you can associate those lower overall regular-season winning percentages with postseasons that featured quicker, often lopsided series. They never yielded more than 32 total playoff games (32 in 2008, 28 in 2007, 30 in 2006 and 30 in 2005). Two years ago, there were three sweeps (Rockies over Phillies, D-backs over Cubs and Red Sox over Angels) — and one that made it to four games (Indians over Yankees).

Earlier this decade, long series seemed to be the rule for a while, and you can associate that period with stronger overall winning percentages by the postseason fields. Look at the years from 2001-04. They were seasons of higher regular season winning percentages: .593 in 2004, .588 in 2003, .612 in 2002 and .595 in 2001. They yielded more than 34 total playoff games every season (34 in 2004, 38 in 2003, 34 in 2002 and 35 in 2001).

Just three of the 21 postseason series over the last three years went the distance. Those three were each an LCS, one per year that went the distance. A Division Series has not gone the full five games since the Angels eliminated the Yankees in 2005. A World Series has not gone the full seven since the Angels beat the Giants in 2002.

If you like best-of-five series that go four or five games, and best-of-seven series that finish with one of those often-historic and always suspense filled Game Seven’s, then you may be in for a treat. Based on that, one certainly can correlate strong postseason fields with lengthier postseason series. And there are even more reasons than that to see why it is tough to visualize any of these clubs going down without a protracted fight in 2009.

“The teams in this field are great teams,” said Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. “They all have their strengths, so I think the matchups will be interesting. It’s not about how you get there, because it is a whole new world once you get to the playoffs.”

Postseason experience is another big reason these matchups all could go either way. There are no Cinderellas in these ballclubs, no wide-eyed newbies. There are individual players who are here for the first time, of course, but every team has a nucleus that knows what this is about, and there is by far more combined postseason experience among the eight managers than in any postseason before. That can play a key role in October (and November).

Recent years have featured the “new-look” charm of clubs that were unique to many postseason viewers. The Rays saw their first postseason last year and the Brewers were in it for the first time since 1982. Colorado’s postseason appearance in 2007 was a first since 1995 and its first trip to the Fall Classic. The Tigers’ 2006 run to the World Series was a first sight for fans in their early 20s, and 2005 was that year Houston fans finally got to see what a World Series felt like — even if it was short-lived during the White Sox sweep.

In the AL, the Yankees are back from a meager one-year hiatus, following a streak of postseason appearances dating back to the Pleistocene. Mike Scioscia’s Angels won it all in 2002, and this is their fifth visit since. For Boston, which just happens to play in the same division as the team with baseball’s best record, it’s time for a sixth postseason in the last seven years — and the hope of a third ring in that span. Minnesota won the World Series in 1987 and again in 1991. Their last trip to the postseason was in 2006 after winning the AL Central, just as they have done this season.

In the NL, the Dodgers are in the postseason for the fourth time in the last six years, with old October hands like Joe Torre, Manny Ramirez, Juan Pierre and Casey Blake. Tony La Russa’s Cardinals are in it for the seventh time this decade, having won it all in 2006. The Phillies are NL East champs a third year in a row and have a great chance to repeat as world champs. The Rockies were a World Series newbie in 2007, when they went on that historic late tear before being swept by Boston, and now everyone knows that Troy Tulowitzki, Brad Hawpe, Todd Helton and the other purple-clad warriors have the ammo.

The playoffs are not played on paper. If they were, then the great 1969 Orioles rotation never would have let the Mets be Amazin’; Charlie Root would have walked Babe Ruth before surrendering the Called Shot; Dennis Eckersley would not have located that last slider to Kirk Gibson elsewhere; and Evan Longoria and the Rays would not have lost their dome-field advantage last year against the Phillies.

But on paper, it is easy to envision a 2009 postseason replete with games and series that go the distance, and a 105th World Series that is stretched to the limit. Based on all of this — combined with some amazing 1-2-3 pitching combinations and the presence of loaded lineups like those of the Yankees (club record for season homers) and Phillies (four with 30 or more homers) — it has all the makings of a Powerhouse Postseason.

The field is set, and what a field it is.

My 2009 Play-off Predictions

National League Division – Philadelphia Phillies

American League Division – New York Yankees

World Series Champions – New York Yankees (in 5 games)

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